{"id":2134,"slug":"confidence-does-not-track-accuracy","title":"Confidence does not reliably track accuracy for subjective judgments","kind":"reference","scope":"business","status":"current","audiences":["kevin","candid-team"],"topics":["self-report-validity","entrepreneurial-overconfidence"],"reference_body":"**Claim:** **Confidence does not reliably track accuracy** for subjective judgments. The confidence-accuracy relationship is task-dependent and often weak. An owner who is \"very confident\" they understand their market is no more likely to be correct than one who is \"somewhat confident.\"\n\n**Confidence:** Industry-consensus across the calibration literature.\n\n**Why this matters for Candid:** Forbids any widget question that uses confidence as a proxy (\"how confident are you that...\" / \"rate your knowledge of...\"). Confidence ratings carry no incremental information beyond the underlying observation. See [[rule-r1-convert-judgment-to-observation]].","rationale_body":null,"metadata":null,"links":{"outgoing":[{"slug":"rule-r1-convert-judgment-to-observation","title":"R1 — Convert every judgment into an observation or counting task","kind":"rule","scope":"business","link_type":"depends-on"}],"incoming":[{"slug":"research-brief-smb-widget-capture-layer-june-2026","title":"Research brief: SMB widget capture layer — what owners can vs cannot self-report (June 2026)","kind":"reference","scope":"business","link_type":"relates-to"}]},"created_at":"2026-06-23T20:03:31.046Z","updated_at":"2026-06-23T20:03:31.046Z"}