{"id":1114,"slug":"chba-hmi-q4-2025-ontario-10pt4-record-lows","title":"CHBA Housing Market Index Q4 2025 — Ontario single-family 10.4, multi-family 2.5; 38% of builders laid off workers; ~3 years of negative sentiment","kind":"reference","scope":"business","status":"current","audiences":["kevin","candid-team"],"topics":["gc-vertical","psychology-aversion","builder-economics"],"reference_body":"**Claim:** Ontario residential construction has lived through nearly three years of record-low builder sentiment:\n\n- Q4 2023: National single-family HMI 24.6 (then all-time low). 64% of builders had built fewer homes in 2023; 36% expected still fewer in 2024.\n- Q3 2025: National single-family HMI 23.3 (new all-time low, surpassing Q4 2023).\n- **Q4 2025: Ontario single-family HMI 10.4** (within a 7–12 range over the past two years); **Ontario multi-family HMI 2.5**; 38% of builders reported having laid off workers.\n\n**Source:** Canadian Home Builders' Association, quarterly HMI releases. https://www.chba.ca/housing-market-index/. Q4 2023: https://www.chba.ca/2024/01/30/record-low-builder-sentiment-foreshadows-troubling-housing-starts-underscoring-need-for-housing-policy-changesrecord-low-builder-sentiment-foreshadows-troubling-housing-starts-underscoring-need-for-h/\n\n**Confidence:** Verified.\n\n**For Candid — the calibrated-prior story:** A GC who has just lived through this period has a **defensible Bayesian basis for refusing to commit to 12-month spend commitments**. The base rate of stable demand conditions, in his lived experience, is approximately zero. This is the empirical substrate of the \"no condition is durable\" prior. Pitches that ignore the macro context and propose long-horizon investment land as either oblivious or out-of-touch with the buyer's reality.\n\n**Cross-reference:** Existing [[chba-publications-hmi-hbps-vividata]] gives the HMI publication context.","rationale_body":null,"metadata":null,"links":{"outgoing":[{"slug":"research-brief-risk-aversion-post-failure-may-2026","title":"Research brief: risk aversion, loss aversion, and post-failure decision patterns in GC and trades-business decision-makers (May 2026)","kind":"reference","scope":"business","link_type":"relates-to"},{"slug":"chba-publications-hmi-hbps-vividata","title":"CHBA flagship publications: quarterly Housing Market Index (HMI), Renovation Market Index (RMI), annual Home Buyer Preference Survey (Avid Ratings, 18,000+ buyers in 2024), Vividata Renovation Reports","kind":"reference","scope":"business","link_type":"relates-to"}],"incoming":[]},"created_at":"2026-05-25T13:13:31.052Z","updated_at":"2026-05-25T13:13:31.052Z"}