{"id":1486,"slug":"caveats-information-asymmetry-decision-edge-vendor-recycled-and-modeled-projections","title":"Caveats: information-asymmetry decision-edge brief (June 2026) — vendor-recycled magnitudes + modeled projections","kind":"reference","scope":"business","status":"current","audiences":["kevin","smb-owner","candid-team"],"topics":["information-asymmetry","customer-retention","digital-maturity"],"reference_body":"**Quarantined claims (do not state as neutral fact):**\n\n- [[retention-magnitude-vendor-recycled-quarantine]] — \"5x-25x cheaper to retain\"; \"5pct retention → 25-95pct profit\"; \"80pct profits from 20pct customers\"; \"AI churn → 20-30pct retention improvement.\" Vendor-recycled, untraced to primary. Capability solid, magnitudes not.\n- [[dunnhumby-co-founder-60bn-claim]] — \"Extra £60bn of sales over 10 years\" from dunnhumby co-founder. Participant claim, incentive-flagged; attribute explicitly if used.\n- [[bdc-modeled-38pct-productivity-14pct-gdp-350b-projection]] — *modeled projection* of upside if all SMEs reached very high maturity; not a realised outcome. Always label \"modelled projection.\"\n- [[motley-fool-progressive-moat-86-4-q1-2026-investment-commentary]] — investment-commentary framing of Progressive's moat. Use only directionally.\n- [[idc-2-5-hours-search-information-myth-2001]] — 2001 intranet-era estimate, partly mythologised. Use as motivation only, not current hard data.\n\n**Excluded from any article as edge evidence:**\n\n- [[progressive-consumer-savings-marketing-excluded]] — Progressive consumer-savings marketing ($169-$328 avg, up-to-30pct, $1.2B discounts). Describes *consumer* savings, not the firm's information edge.\n\n**Source-incentive flags (use with explicit attribution):**\n\n- [[bdc-digital-maturity-1-in-5-canadian-sme-high]] — BDC is a federal Crown corporation with a mandate-aligned interest in encouraging SME digital adoption.\n- [[tesco-clubcard-1994-trial-9-stores-50m-tx]] / [[tesco-clubcard-overtook-sainsburys-doubled-share]] — primary narrative is participant-authored (dunnhumby founders).\n- [[american-airlines-yield-management-edelman-1992]] — 5-7pct typical-uplift figure sometimes cited via American's own OR head (peer-reviewed venue, so mild flag only).\n\n**Aging / superseded sources:**\n\n- IDC 2001 + McKinsey 2012 search-time figures ([[idc-2-5-hours-search-information-myth-2001]]) — pre-modern-search, illustrative only.\n\n**Sister-brief caveats umbrellas (shared source-incentive asymmetry):**\n\n- [[caveats-data-driven-tools-vendor-self-reported-and-large-enterprise]]\n- [[caveats-customer-facing-calculators-vendor-marketing-base]]\n- [[caveats-client-portals-vendor-marketing-base]]\n- [[caveats-dashboards-vendor-marketing-base]]","rationale_body":null,"metadata":null,"links":{"outgoing":[{"slug":"caveats-customer-facing-calculators-vendor-marketing-base","title":"Caveats for the customer-facing-calculators brief: every conversion-lift figure is unproven; nearly all are vendor-self-reported","kind":"reference","scope":"business","link_type":"relates-to"},{"slug":"caveats-data-driven-tools-vendor-self-reported-and-large-enterprise","title":"Caveats for the data-driven-tools brief: vendor self-reporting on conversion; enterprise-scale benchmarks; named-user quotes; macro projections","kind":"reference","scope":"business","link_type":"relates-to"},{"slug":"caveats-client-portals-vendor-marketing-base","title":"Caveats for the client-portals brief: source-incentives are pervasive; the independent anchors are McKinsey and Gartner; market-size figures unreliable; the viral 42% stat is misattributed","kind":"reference","scope":"business","link_type":"relates-to"},{"slug":"caveats-dashboards-vendor-marketing-base","title":"Caveats for the dashboards brief: pervasive BI/embedded-analytics vendor sourcing; the viral \"60-70%\" stat is folklore; SMB data thin; retention claims unproven","kind":"reference","scope":"business","link_type":"relates-to"},{"slug":"research-brief-information-asymmetry-decision-edge-june-2026","title":"Research notes (capture-layer): the affirmative, inward decision-edge case for data intelligence — information asymmetry applied to pricing, demand, risk, retention, targeting (June 2026)","kind":"research-notes","scope":"business","link_type":"depends-on"}],"incoming":[{"slug":"caveats-mls-data-inside-the-box-untested-clauses-and-self-reported-metrics","title":"Caveats: MLS-data inside-the-box brief (June 2026) — untested clauses, self-reported metrics, contested copyright status","kind":"reference","scope":"business","link_type":"relates-to"}]},"created_at":"2026-06-21T01:14:48.820Z","updated_at":"2026-06-21T01:14:48.820Z"}