{"id":1968,"slug":"bls-establishment-survival-49-6-percent-five-year","title":"BLS Business Employment Dynamics — ~20–22% of US establishments fail Y1; ~49.6% five-year survival; ~65% failed by Y10","kind":"reference","scope":"business","status":"current","audiences":["kevin","smb-owner","candid-team"],"topics":["page-builders","longevity-architecture","editorial-discipline"],"reference_body":"**Claim:** BLS Business Employment Dynamics: **~20–22% of US establishments fail in year 1**; **five-year survival is ~49.6% for the canonical March 1994 cohort** and ranges **49.8–57.3% across cohorts** per BLS Table 7 (\"Survival of private sector establishments by opening year\"); **~65% have failed by year 10**.\n\n**Source:** US BLS Business Employment Dynamics, Table 7.\n\n**Confidence:** Verified (government data).\n\n**Why this matters for Candid:** Decomposes \"dead site\" causes. **A dead site frequently reflects a dead business, not platform failure.** When a customer cites a half-empty list of abandoned builder sites as evidence the platform doesn't work, the BLS curve is the first thing to bring up — about half of any cohort of small businesses is gone by year 5 regardless of platform. See [[rule-r4-decompose-dead-site-via-bls-survival]].","rationale_body":null,"metadata":null,"links":{"outgoing":[{"slug":"rule-r4-decompose-dead-site-via-bls-survival","title":"R4 — Use BLS business-survival data to decompose \"dead site\" causes — many are dead businesses, not platform failure","kind":"rule","scope":"business","link_type":"relates-to"}],"incoming":[{"slug":"research-brief-diy-page-builder-effectiveness-longevity-june-2026","title":"Research brief: effectiveness and longevity of DIY / page-builder websites for SMBs (June 2026)","kind":"reference","scope":"business","link_type":"relates-to"}]},"created_at":"2026-06-23T12:08:39.349Z","updated_at":"2026-06-23T12:08:39.349Z"}