{"id":1251,"slug":"anchoring-effect-tversky-kahneman-1974","title":"Anchoring effect (Tversky & Kahneman, 1974) — the first number presented becomes a reference point that pulls all later judgments, even when arbitrary","kind":"reference","scope":"business","status":"current","audiences":["kevin","smb-owner","candid-team"],"topics":["behavioral-economics","customer-facing-tools","anchoring-effect"],"reference_body":"**Claim:** Anchoring is a robust cognitive bias documented since Tversky & Kahneman (1974): the first number presented becomes a reference point that pulls subsequent judgements toward it, even when the anchor is arbitrary. Adjustment away from the anchor is typically insufficient.\n\n**Source:** Harvard Program on Negotiation https://www.pon.harvard.edu/daily/negotiation-skills-daily/price-anchoring-101/ ; Wikipedia summary https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anchoring_effect\n\n**Confidence:** Verified — one of the most reproduced findings in behavioural science.\n\n**Why this matters for Candid:** A public calculator number anchors the customer *before any conversation*. When the on-site $8,000 estimate becomes a $12,000 quote after a real assessment, the seller is no longer opening a negotiation — they are climbing out of a hole they dug on their own homepage. This is the strongest behavioural argument against precision in customer-facing calculators. See [[rule-treat-public-numbers-as-anchors]].","rationale_body":null,"metadata":null,"links":{"outgoing":[],"incoming":[{"slug":"research-brief-customer-facing-calculators-smb-june-2026","title":"Research brief: customer-facing calculators & tools for SMBs — the honest case (June 2026)","kind":"reference","scope":"business","link_type":"relates-to"},{"slug":"source-incentive-meta-finding-calculators","title":"Source-incentive meta-finding: nearly every \"calculators convert\" source SELLS calculators; independent material clusters on the risks","kind":"reference","scope":"business","link_type":"depends-on"},{"slug":"rule-build-calculator-only-if-pricing-formulaic","title":"R1 — Build a customer-facing calculator only when pricing is genuinely formula-driven and buyers comparison-shop","kind":"rule","scope":"business","link_type":"depends-on"},{"slug":"rule-default-to-directional-range-ungated","title":"R2 — Default to a directional range, ungated, with a loud \"this is a ballpark\" — not a precise gated quote","kind":"rule","scope":"business","link_type":"depends-on"},{"slug":"rule-treat-public-numbers-as-anchors","title":"R7 — Treat every public number on a client site as an anchor; design accordingly","kind":"rule","scope":"business","link_type":"depends-on"},{"slug":"zillow-zestimate-error-rates","title":"Zillow Zestimate published error rates — ~1.9% on-market, ~7.5% off-market; lawsuits; 7th Circuit 2019 sided with Zillow partly because \"estimate\" was clearly labelled","kind":"reference","scope":"business","link_type":"relates-to"},{"slug":"northcraft-neale-1987-real-estate-experts-anchoring","title":"Northcraft & Neale (1987) — anchoring replicates with REAL-ESTATE EXPERTS: agents' valuations track arbitrary listing prices, despite experts' confidence they don't","kind":"reference","scope":"business","link_type":"depends-on"},{"slug":"englich-mussweiler-strack-2006-judges-dice-anchoring","title":"Englich, Mussweiler & Strack (2006) — anchoring replicates with JUDGES: sentences track dice rolls, despite judges' confidence they don't","kind":"reference","scope":"business","link_type":"depends-on"},{"slug":"rule-honest-anchor-tool-output-matches-sales-quote","title":"R8 — The tool's number IS the buyer's anchor; sales must be ready to MEET OR EXPLAIN it — bait-and-switch destroys the trust the mechanism case earns","kind":"rule","scope":"business","link_type":"depends-on"}]},"created_at":"2026-06-20T16:50:09.636Z","updated_at":"2026-06-20T16:50:09.636Z"}