{"id":1823,"slug":"ahrefs-page-1-overlap-38pct-down-from-76pct-2026","title":"Ahrefs (863k keywords / 4M URLs) — page-1 overlap with AI Overview citations dropped from 76% (Jul 2025) to 38% in 2026","kind":"reference","scope":"business","status":"current","audiences":["kevin","smb-owner","candid-team"],"topics":["ai-citation","rank-vs-citation-decoupling"],"reference_body":"**Claim:** A parallel **Ahrefs** study (**863k keywords / 4M URLs**) puts the page-1 overlap with AI Overview citations at **38%**, down from **76% in July 2025**.\n\n**Source:** ahrefs.com — 2026.\n\n**Confidence:** Industry-consensus (consistent direction with BrightEdge and Moz).\n\n**Caveat:** Ahrefs is a vendor; large-N keyword sample is internal.\n\n**Why this matters for Candid:** The *trajectory* (76% → 38% in 6–7 months) is the more important finding than either single level. The two systems are diverging fast, not converging.","rationale_body":null,"metadata":null,"links":{"outgoing":[{"slug":"brightedge-17pct-aio-citations-in-organic-top-10-2026","title":"BrightEdge — only ~17% of sources cited in AI Overviews also rank in Google's organic top 10; ~5 of 6 AIO citations are NOT on page 1","kind":"reference","scope":"business","link_type":"relates-to"}],"incoming":[{"slug":"research-brief-website-as-working-surface-june-2026","title":"Research brief: the website as a working surface of the business — four capabilities, AI-citation decoupling, freshness as a real signal (June 2026)","kind":"reference","scope":"business","link_type":"relates-to"},{"slug":"rule-decouple-from-google-rank-as-sole-success-metric","title":"R5 — Decouple from Google rank as sole success metric; AI citation, AI-Mode mentions, and direct-traffic / branded search now matter independently","kind":"rule","scope":"business","link_type":"depends-on"}]},"created_at":"2026-06-21T13:17:17.711Z","updated_at":"2026-06-21T13:17:17.711Z"}