{"id":2055,"slug":"ahrefs-2025-1-7-percent-new-pages-rank","title":"Ahrefs May 2025 — only 1.74% of newly published pages reach top 10 within a year (vendor)","kind":"reference","scope":"business","status":"current","audiences":["kevin","candid-team"],"topics":["content-seo-timelines"],"reference_body":"**Claim:** Ahrefs' updated May 2025 study (Patrick Stox): \"Only **1.74%** of newly published pages rank in the top 10 within a year (down from 5.7% in 2017)... The average **#1 ranking page is 5 years old** (up from 2 years old in 2017).\"\n\n**Source:** Ahrefs (vendor — sells SEO subscription tools).\n\n**Caveat:** Vendor data. BUT this number cuts AGAINST Ahrefs' incentive (it makes SEO look harder, not more \"essential\"), so the direction is more credible than typical vendor data.\n\n**Confidence:** Single-source / Directional.\n\n**Why this matters for Candid:** The base rate for content work. The widget must communicate this honestly — most pages never rank, and the timeline has lengthened.","rationale_body":null,"metadata":null,"links":{"outgoing":[],"incoming":[{"slug":"research-brief-smb-widget-difficulty-to-work-june-2026","title":"Research brief: SMB widget difficulty-to-work mapping — three tiers of work for three sizes of gap (June 2026)","kind":"reference","scope":"business","link_type":"relates-to"},{"slug":"tier-2-findability-and-trust","title":"Tier 2 — Findability + trust infrastructure (MODERATE GAP)","kind":"reference","scope":"business","link_type":"depends-on"},{"slug":"rule-honest-timelines-and-base-rates","title":"Rule — Attach honest timelines and base rates to every tier recommendation","kind":"rule","scope":"business","link_type":"depends-on"}]},"created_at":"2026-06-23T19:16:02.709Z","updated_at":"2026-06-23T19:16:02.709Z"}